McSally’s own campaign identified crucial shortfalls in Arizona’s electorate that led to her loss. In a memo released after Election Day, McSally’s campaign consultants blamed her loss in part on an electorate that disliked President Trump and wasn’t attracted to a candidate like McSally who bearhugged him whenever possible. In their own words, a “segment of moderate Republicans, especially woman [sic], proved very difficult to bring home to a Republican candidate that supported President Trump and the confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh.” It’s hard to imagine the electoral environment changing in her favor between now and Election Day 2020.